Dubai property: what the figures say

This page sets out what can currently be evidenced about the Dubai property market, and names where evidence is missing. We update it quarterly.

Data as of July 2026.

Headline figures

Measure	Value	As of
Average, whole market	AED 1,916/sq ft ≈ 20,600 AED/m²	June 2026
Apartments	AED 1,969/sq ft ≈ 21,200 AED/m²	June 2026
New-build apartments	≈ 22,000 AED/m²	2026
Resale apartments	≈ 18,400 AED/m²	2026
Typical apartment price	AED 1.3m ≈ £280,000	2026
Change year on year	+10 to 12%	2026

By area:

Area	AED/m²	vs market
Downtown Dubai	32,400	+46%
Business Bay	27,400	+23%
Dubai Marina	22,200	+8%
Market average	20,600	—

How to read those numbers

The 10 to 12 per cent rise is the most quoted figure about this market and the most misread. Three qualifications:

It averages a highly varied market. Individual areas and property types diverged considerably. An area average describes no specific property.

It looks backwards. Projecting it forward is an assumption, not a forecast. We do not make it.

The market runs cycles. Dubai has been through pronounced upswings and downswings. A short holding period carries timing risk regardless of how the past year turned out.

New-build and resale diverge

The gap between new-build and resale runs near 20 per cent. That is not a quality verdict but the price of two different products: new-build comes with a payment plan across construction, resale with a unit usable now.

For market watching the gap itself is informative. Widening suggests heavy new supply; narrowing suggests scarcity in the existing stock.

What we cannot state responsibly

Named explicitly, for honesty’s sake:

On vacancy. We hold no reliable current vacancy rate for the whole market from a verified source, so we quote none. Figures in circulation frequently come from individual analyses without a stated method.

On the coming months. Forecasts exist in abundance. They are assumptions, and we do not present them as market data.

On a “crash” or a “bubble”. Both terms are searched and therefore supplied readily. On the data available to us there is no evidence for either. Just as there is none for guaranteed continued growth.

Which sources hold up

A ranking that applies equally to your own research:

1. Registered transactions at the Dubai Land Department. The only genuinely binding source. It shows what was actually paid, not what is asked.

2. Market reports from established consultancies. Usually methodologically transparent, but published with a lag.

3. Analyses from agencies. Useful for magnitude. Bear in mind the publisher has an interest in how the market is portrayed.

4. Portal averages. These show asking prices, not completions. Unsuitable for a purchase decision.

The figures on this page come predominantly from category 3. That is disclosed, and traceable in the sources below. For actual purchase decisions we use category 1.

What this means for a decision

Market figures answer “how does the market stand?”. They do not answer “is this property worth its price?”. For that, what counts is registered sales in the same building and period, the service charge history and the letting record of the unit.

A market can rise 11 per cent while an individual tower loses value. Both at once is entirely normal.

Frequently asked questions

How have Dubai property prices moved?

Residential prices in 2026 ran some 10 to 12 per cent above the previous year. That is a backward-looking average across a varied market and says nothing about what comes next.

Is there a property bubble in Dubai?

Not answerable with a straight yes or no. What is demonstrable: heavy construction activity, sustained international demand, and pronounced cycles historically. Deriving a forecast from that is an assumption.

What is the vacancy rate in Dubai?

We hold no reliable current figure from a verified source, so we quote none. For a specific building the letting history is more informative than a market-wide rate anyway.

Is the Dubai property market going to crash?

We do not know, and neither does anyone quoting a figure at you. What is demonstrable: heavy construction activity, sustained international demand, and pronounced cycles in both directions historically. A forecast drawn from that is an assumption, not data — which is why this page carries none. If a short holding period would be ruined by a downturn, that is an argument about your horizon rather than about a prediction.

Where do I find official market data?

At the Dubai Land Department, which records registered transactions. It is the only source reflecting prices actually paid.

When is this page updated?

Quarterly. The date is at the top and in the update stamp. If you are preparing a decision, speak to us and we will pull current comparable sales for your specific property.